MADRID – “I’m getting tired of playing Roger Federer in every round.” This remark by Carlos Alcaraz a week ago in Indian Wells, uttered somewhere between a joke and resignation, hides a rather bitter truth for him: practically all his opponents have to be at their very best to beat the Spanish player. It is the greatest compliment he can receive, but also a curse.
“To be honest, sometimes I just get tired of playing against Roger Federer in every round. Sometimes I feel they’re playing at a truly insane level. And I don’t know if I’m wrong, but I feel it’s always against me. If they played at that level in every match, they’d be higher up the rankings,” was the explanation given by the current world number one after France’s Arthur Rinderknech pushed him to the limit in the third round of the Indian Wells Masters 1000. “I feel like I’ve got a target on my back,” insisted the Spaniard.
Days after those words went viral, Alcaraz was knocked out in the semi-finals by Daniil Medvedev. “To be honest, I’d never seen him play like that before,” said the seven-time Grand Slam champion. And now, at the Miami Masters 1000, more of the same after losing to American Sebastian Korda in the third round: “This confirms what I said at Indian Wells, but I was already prepared for it. It’s something I have to accept from now on: I know my opponents are going to play at their best to beat me. In a way, it’s good that they think they have to play at their best to beat me. It’s up to me to accept it and improve so that defeats like this don’t happen.”
Toni Nadal: “He doesn’t have a target on his back”
Although tennis is a sport with endless statistics, it is extremely difficult to measure with objective data whether a player raises his game against Alcaraz. Normally, even when playing at one’s best, average statistics tend to drop simply because one is facing the world number one: because he returns better, because he takes time away from his opponent, because what is a winner against another player is just another ball against Alcaraz. Furthermore, “playing better” is difficult to measure with statistics because, normally, to beat a player of Alcaraz’s calibre, you have to take far more risks than usual: this translates into more unforced errors during points and more double faults on serve.
“It’s not a question of having a target on your back; I don’t agree with Alcaraz. When you play against someone better than you, you know you have to take far greater risks, and Alcaraz is better than Medvedev,” explained Toni Nadal, who was Rafael Nadal’s coach for many years and knows exactly what he’s talking about. “It’s not that Medvedev is more motivated to play against Alcaraz; he knows that to beat him he has to take far more risks. It’s not a battle against Alcaraz, but against the best, and right now Alcaraz is the best,” added the coach during an interview with Onda Cero.
That is the “Federer effect” Alcaraz was referring to. When you’re up against the world number one, a player so superior both physically and on the court, you have only one option: to free yourself from any kind of pressure and play with everything you’ve got, as if you had nothing to lose. Alcaraz has become the excuse for many to let loose and play without thinking. It is a tactical survival strategy: previously, when the Spaniard was inconsistent, his opponent could sit back and hope he wouldn’t have a great day. With the Alcaraz of 2026, that is no longer enough. Now you have to play like Federer to beat him.
