Entering the 2026 Australian Open, everyone who’s anyone was asking the same question: Can Carlos Alcaraz become the youngest player ever to win all four Grand Slam titles?
The answer remains unknown. It is, in fact, playing out as you read this. Though there are plenty of other storylines to follow, Alcaraz’ march through the bracket is dominating the headlines. Understandably so, too.
At just 22 years old, Alcaraz has won the French Open, U.S. Open and Wimbledon two times apiece. To this point, an Australian Open victory is the only Grand Slam title that eludes the world’s No. 1 ranked men’s player.
With names like Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev still in play, there’s no guarantee Alcaraz will hoist the Norman Brookes Challenge Cup. At the same time, the vast majority of Australian Open oddsmakers have him getting the job done. That is to some extent the byproduct of his world ranking. The No. 1 players always receive the benefit of the doubt.
Plus, odds on the Australian Open are not purely predictive. Markets are reflective of interest—of popularity. As the world’s No. 1 men’s player, Alacaraz is arguably the most recognizable tennis face on the planet. It makes sense that people will gravitate toward forecasting his victory.
Yet, when you look at the Australian Open draw he’s currently playing through, it’s hard not to think this will be the year he scoops up the lone Grand Slam title he doesn’t have.
Carlos Alcaraz Has Never Gotten A Better Australian Open Draw
When you dig into who Alcaraz must go through to win the Australian Open, his odds of being the last one standing dramatically increase. As James Hansen and Matthew Futterman write for The Athletic:
“Now that he and Sinner have a stranglehold on the world No. 1 and No. 2 rankings, with a 6,395-point gap between Sinner and Alexander Zverev at No. 3, it is getting ever harder to unseat them — and Alcaraz could likely not have built himself a better draw for what would be a milestone title. Zverev is in his half, but faces a rocky road to get to the semifinals. He opens against dangerous Canadian Gabriel Diallo, and could face Alexei Popyrin on a partisan Rod Laver Arena in the second round
“The highest seed other than Zverev in Alcaraz’s section is Félix Auger-Aliassime, the No. 7……The reality of men’s draws for the past year is that much of it feels like a warmup for the two players who are dominating the tour. No one would bet against a similar dynamic recurring in Melbourne in the next fortnight.”
Zverev still poses a worthwhile obstacle for Alcaraz. He continues to land around 75 percent of his first serves, which are points that he wins roughly 84 percent of the time. It’s also worth noting that these two have a 6-6 lifetime record against one another.
Still, Alcaraz has leveled up over the years. And in their last matchup, at the 2025 Cincinnati Open, he dispatched Zverev in straight sets, winning 6-4, 6-3.
Granted, Zverev was visibly banged up in that head-to-head. Alcaraz himself noted as much after winning. Zverev clearly wasn’t moving with his same mobility, seemingly opting against going all-out on a handful of points.
That Alcaraz still gave up a total of seven games in that clash could be seen as proof the margins between the two are closer than point totals imply. Perhaps that is fair. But Alcaraz made so many unforced errors during that stretch, including a series of uncharacteristic double-faults.
This is all to say: Zverev will not be an easy opponent if these two meet, but if he’s the stiffest competition Alcaraz must face en route to the final, then we might as well pencil Alcaraz into the final.
The Hidden Benefit of Carlos Alcaraz’s Australian Open Draw
Of course, it’s not just about who is on Alacraz’s side of the Australian Open bracket. It is also about who’s not.
Novak Djokovic is on Sinner’s end of the spectrum. What’s more, as of this moment, the No. 2 ranked Sinner is on pace for a third-round dalliance with Luciano Darderi or Karen Khachanov.
To be sure, Djokovic and Fonseca currently profile as the only meaningful threats to Sinner in his bracket. But that is still more viable foils than Alcaraz is projected to face—a big deal.
Think of it this way: Depending on how Zverev looks, there is a non-zero chance Alcaraz cracks the Australian Open Final while only having to face one top-10-ranked player. That is…kind of absurd.
Rafael Nadal May Soon Be Relinquishing His Record
Rafael Nadal is presently the youngest player ever to rack up all four Grand Slam titles during the Open Era. He completed the feat at the age of 24. Going back further, Don Budge is the youngest of all time, having won all four titles just a couple of days before his 23rd birthday.
If Alcaraz’s Australian Open draw and performance is any indication, neither of these two will hold their respective records for much longer.
This first and foremost speaks to the dominance and progression of Alcaraz. It is secondly, and perhaps most importantly, something that feels inevitable.
Alcaraz is already the youngest player ever to win titles across all three court surfaces. It is fitting, then, that he’d also be the youngest to bag all four Grand Slam titles. And while anything can still happen, it’s tough to view his could-be record-breaking performance, at this point, as anything more than a formality.
