Alexander Zverev had lost three Grand Slam finals heading into 2026. The US Open in 2020, Paris in 2024, and Melbourne to the merciless Jannik Sinner, the latter of that trio being a defeat that reportedly left the German in tears. Then came Roland-Garros in June, and the door, suddenly, was wide open.
Zverev’s Golden 2026
Defending back-to-back champion Carlos Alcaraz withdrew with an injury while Sinner had fallen apart in the baking Parisian heat as he slumped to a shocking second-round defeat to Juan Manuel Cerundolo. Novak Djokovic then lost 24 hours later, and suddenly, just Flavio Cobolli stood between Zverev and that maiden first Slam. The world number two made hard work of it, but after five sets spanning four hours and sixteen minutes, he had claimed his first major title on his 125th Grand Slam match win.
“We’ve been through so much,” he said afterward, of his team, of the years it took. Ten weeks later, he then beat Ben Shelton in the US Open final, this time taking advantage of a Sinner withdrawal and an Alcaraz quarterfinal exit, to claim his second Slam of the year, becoming only the fourth man in the Open era to win his first two majors in the same season.
Everyone knew Alexander Zverev was US Open champion except for Alexander Zverev pic.twitter.com/zM2K3RlZvF
— Ozoon (@Ozoon_CA) September 13, 2026
But here’s the asterisk that will follow him into 2027, and it isn’t small: across both triumphs, Zverev never had to get past Sinner or Alcaraz. Cobolli and Shelton are fine players in their own right. But they are not the two men who’d split the last nine majors between them heading into the 2026 French Open.
So, does the market treat Zverev as a genuine third member of that club now, or does it still see him as the best of the rest? Four months out, here are the way-too-early betting favourites to win the 2027 Australian Open.
Jannik Sinner
The latest online tennis odds from Ozoon make Sinner the even-money favourite to claim a third Australian Open in four years next January, and little about his season suggests the odds are wrong to still make him the frontrunner. He won five consecutive Masters 1000 titles — Indian Wells, Miami, Monte-Carlo, Madrid and Rome — a run nobody in the series’ history had managed. Then Paris happened.
Two sets and 5-1 up in the third against Cerúndolo, Sinner’s body simply gave out in the heat, and he lost in five, ending both his nine-major streak with Alcaraz and a winning run that had stretched to 30 matches. Wimbledon put the season back on track: straight sets past Djokovic in the semifinal, four sets past Zverev in the final.
Can an ongoing knee injury really be the thing that costs him the chance of reclaiming his throne atop the Melbourne mountaintop? The issue forced him out of the US Open entirely — only the second world No. 1 to miss the tournament since rankings began — and until there’s clarity on how that knee holds up over best-of-five, even-money looks about right.
Carlos Alcaraz
Let’s be honest about what Alcaraz’s own words revealed after that Melbourne semifinal — “I always say that you have to believe in yourself no matter what” — spoken after five hours and 27 minutes against Zverev that left him needing every ounce of that belief before he’d even reached the final. He beat Djokovic in four to complete the career Grand Slam in January, becoming the youngest man in the Open era to win all four major finals and ending Djokovic’s unbeaten record in Melbourne finals at ten-for-ten.
Is there a crueller single season than completing that set in January only to play just one major the rest of the year? A wrist injury picked up in Barcelona in April wiped out four months of his 2026, costing him Madrid, Rome, and the defence of his French Open title and the chance to reclaim his Wimbledon crown. He returned for the US Open and lost a quarterfinal to Shelton that finished at 3:33 a.m., the latest conclusion in tournament history.
He’s world No. 3 now, but 6/4 tells you what the sport still thinks of him: fit and healthy, not far behind Sinner at all.
Alexander Zverev
Two majors, and still only a distant 7/1 third-favourite. That’s the story of Zverev’s 2026 in one line. Neither Cobolli nor Shelton belongs in the conversation Sinner and Alcaraz occupy, and Zverev’s record against fellow top-ten players in Grand Slam matches sits at a modest 5-18.
His Melbourne semifinal loss to Alcaraz from the 2026 edition remains his only real audition against the two men above him in these odds, and it ended in defeat. None of which erases what he actually did this year: a first Slam on his 12th attempt in Paris, a second in the Big Apple, becoming just the fourth man in the Open era to win his opening two majors in the same year.
But until he beats Sinner or Alcaraz when a trophy is on the line, the market isn’t wrong to keep him at arm’s length. Seven-to-one is respectful. But the bookies still consider him to be the best of the rest as opposed to anything more.
